The Ups and Downs of the Pound
The Pound started last week on great form. GBP/EUR traded over 1.1400 for the first time since late January, and Cable made strong progress to the top of its recent range at 1.2144.
With the announcement of the Windsor Framework agreement between the UK and EU on February 27th you’d have expected the Pound to maintain its good form.
The agreement focuses on the transportation of goods from Great Britain to Northern Ireland via the Irish Sea, outlining the implementation of green and red lanes to streamline the inspection and administrative processes for goods intended for Northern Ireland. Additionally, the agreement includes provisions for regulating medicine, VAT, and alcohol duty, among other measures.
Despite the good news for UK/EU relations and a big win for Rishi Sunak, the Pound took a sharp downturn for the rest of last week. So far this year, there have been a handful of opportunities to sell GBP, but they have all been incredibly short lived.
Yesterday, Jerome Powell spoke about the Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report before the Senate Banking Committee. Powell continued with his hawkish stance, indicating the Federal Reserves terminal rate will be higher than anticipated. He said they will stay the course until the job is done and will accelerate the pace of tightening in light of ongoing inflation risks. On this news, the USD was heavily bought, and GBP/USD fell by over 2% to a low of 1.1810. GBP/EUR was also dragged lower and traded at 1.1204.
If you would like to place an order to take advantage of any spikes in the market, or to fix a forward at the current levels, please contact your FX dealer.
Calendar
Wednesday
- US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
- CAD Overnight Rate
- US Fed Chair Powell Testifies
Thursday
- US Unemployment Claims
Friday
- UK GDP m/m
- UK Manufacturing and Industrial Production
- UK NIESR GDP Estimate
- German Final CPI m/m
- US Non-Farm Employment Change
- US Unemployment Rate
